A PROFESSIONAL EXCHANGE VISIT TO CHINA Russell C. Coile, Ph.D., CEM Disaster Coordinator/Emergency Program Manager Pacific Grove Fire Department 600 Pine Avenue Pacific Grove, CA 93950-3317 Tel: (831) 648-3110 Fax: (831) 648-3107 e-mail: russell@coile.com Abstract I visited the Center for Disaster Reduction of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, Peoples Republic of China from October 20-31, 1997. This was one of the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research's 1997 US/PRC researcher exchange visits. I gave a seminar at the Center on "Emergency Preparedness for Earthquakes in California" on October 28, 1997. Professor Wang Ang-Sheng, Director of the Center arranged for me to visit the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and the Institute of Geology. I visited Peking University and Beijing Polytechnic University. I also met scientists from the Institute of Geophysics and Institute of Crustal Dynamics, State Seismological Bureau, and visited Tangshan, a city where more than 240,000 people were killed in 1976 in China's worst earthquake disaster in this century. American emergency preparedness literature was given to the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Chinese research community seemed glad to learn of these grass-roots emergency preparedness public education efforts which emphasize that the individual homeowner must assume more responsibility for preparedness. Their research community has outreach problems with their administrative community. Numerous Chinese research publications were given to me. Chinese research into natural disaster precursors and prediction seems promising, and would seem to be worth investigating. Introduction The National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER), State University of New York, Buffalo published in October 1996 a request for proposals for United States/Peoples Republic of China researcher exchange visits to be sponsored by the National Science Foundation. A proposal was submitted to the NCEER for exchange visits of Chinese earthquake researchers to visit Pacific Grove to learn how small California cities prepare for earthquakes and for the Pacific Grove Fire Department's disaster coordinator to visit China for two weeks to learn how the Chinese prepare for earthquakes. Perhaps you are wondering how someone working at a fire department could receive a National Science Foundation / National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research researcher exchange travel grant. Aren't these grants usually awarded to someone at places such as Stanford or the California Institute of Technology? Well, I now believe in miracles, but perhaps it helped that the Federal Emergency Management Agency gave national recognition in May 1997 to "Pacific Grove - A Model City for Disaster Preparedness". FEMA published a report "Compendium of Exemplary Practices in Emergency Management" and included Pacific Grove among the projects selected after a nation-wide search. Also, the January issue of the Journal of the American Society of Information Science contained a paper entitled, "Citation Theories in the Framework of International Flow of Information: New Evidence with Translational Analysis" by Zimung Liu, School of Information Management and Systems, University of California, Berkeley. The paper presented an analysis of citations and translations in Chinese library and information science literature. For example, citation data were collected from seven major Chinese journals in library and information science published between 1983 and 1990. My name was listed in Appendix A: Groups of the most Heavily cited and Translated Authors. What was even more astonishing was Appendix B. Appendix B: The 33 Most Heavily Cited English-Language Publications listed the names of two Nobel prize winners, various professors at Harvard, Yale, Cornell, Stanford, Cambridge, University of California, Berkeley, Chicago, and Coile, R.C. What a surprise to see a paper I had written in 1977 in my starving student days working on my Ph.D. listed as heavily cited! I immediately wrote to the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research to point out that some Chinese had found my earlier research useful and that I hoped that some seismologists in Beijing would be given a travel grant to come to Pacific Grove to find out what useful things in earthquake preparedness that I am now involved with. The NCEER approved my proposal on August 16, 1997 with the stipulation that the travel must be completed prior to February 28, 1998. I therefore suggested visiting the Chinese Academy of Sciences during the period of October 20-31, 1997. The Pacific Grove City Manager invited the Chinese to visit Pacific Grove during the first two weeks in April 1998 so that they could observe the City of Pacific Grove's participation in the State of California's annual earthquake exercise, usually scheduled for the first Tuesday in April. The Chinese Academy of Sciences sent me an invitation message by e-mail for me to show to the Chinese Consulate in San Francisco when I applied for my visa. The American Embassy in Beijing was notified by e-mail of Dr. Coile's visit to the Chinese Academy of Sciences. An inquiry had also been made to the Chinese Academy of Sciences for a possible visit to the Shanghai Anti-Disaster & Relief Office on October 9-10. I had met some of the five members of the Shanghai delegation to the 2nd International Conference: Local Authorities Confronting Disasters and Emergencies (LACDE) held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands in April 1996 when I presented a paper there. However, as it turned out, when I arrived in Shanghai and contacted the Anti-Disaster & Relief Office, this visit could not take place because of the absence of the interpreter. Center for Disaster Reduction, Chinese Academy of Sciences The Center for Disaster Reduction, Chinese Academy of Sciences was established on September 14, 1995. The Center's headquarters is located at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Qijiahuozi, Deshengmenwai, Beijing 100029, tel: (86-10) 6204-8994, fax: (86-10) 6202-8604. It is a union of more than 40 organizations which are engaged in disaster reduction activities. There were 47 research projects underway in 1996. Professor Wang Ang-Sheng is the Director of the Center for Disaster Reduction, e-mail: angswang@mimi.cnc.ac.cn . Professor Wang is also Vice President of the Research Committee, Academia Sinica; Director of the Experts Group, Chinese National Committee for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction; Member of International Committee of Cloud Precipitation; Associate Menber of TWAS-ICTP; and is at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. Dr. Qian Ye, (Ph.D. Oregon State University), Director of the Science and Technology Planning Office, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, tel: (86-10) 6491-9944 ext 2449, e-mail: yq@dec200.tea.ac.cn and qy@cdc.noaa.gov and Dr. Dong Jiarui, Center for Disaster Reduction and also at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. e-mail: jrdong@linux2.iap.ac.cn assisted Professor Wang in arranging my visits to other organizations in China. Seminar I gave a seminar "Emergency Preparedness for Earthquakes in California" on October 28, 1997 at the Center for Disaster Reduction. My wife, Ellen, also discussed how neighborhood emergency response teams are organized. There were a number of representatives from the Center for Disaster Reduction, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Geology, and Institute of Crustal Dynamics, State Seismological Bureau who participated in the seminar. American preparedness literature was presented to the Center for Disaster Reduction.. This included a copy of the NCEER Bulletin; the EERI catalog of publications; an issue of the Natural Hazards Observer (with information sources); California 1997 Earthquake Month reproducible masters for public education prepared by the Governor's Office of Emergency Services; U.S. Geological Survey's Big Earthquake booklet by Dr. Peter Ward; Monterey Herald newspaper's earthquake preparedness supplement; Yogi's Bear facts about earthquake preparedness; various FEMA/Red Cross pamphlets, such as Your Disaster Plan, Disaster Checklist, Disaster Supplies, Mobility Problems, Are You Ready?, etc.; Monterey County Resources for Seniors; Monterey County Earthquake Preparedness for Seniors; Pacific Grove's Earthquake Preparedness for Business; National Weather Service publications; Weather Radio; Flash Floods; FEMA's Publication Catalog; FEMA's Compendium of Exemplary Practices in Emergency Management; FEMA's Emergency Management Institute's catalog of courses; an issue of Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal; National Coordinating Council on Emergency Management (NCCEM) Bulletin; NCCEM booklet; NCCEM 1997 Conference announcement; Certified Emergency Manager (CEM) booklet; California Specialized Training Institute, San Luis Obispo catalog of courses; and the 1997 Journal of the American Society of Professional Emergency Planners. Peking University A visit was made to Peking University, Department of Geophysics to meet Professor Xiao-fei Chen, e-mail: xfchen@pku.edu.cn and Dr.Jie Yuan Ning, e-mail nyj@pku.edu.cn. Professor Chen (Ph.D. University of Southern California) gave me reprints of some of his seismological research papers. (Note - Yes, it is still officially "Peking" University which will celebrate its 100 year anniversary in 1999. Many newspaper and TV reporters there with President Clinton were confused and kept calling it "Beijing" University.) Institute of Geophysics and Institute of Crustal Dynamics, State Seismological Bureau I met Professor Xiaoping Zeng. Institute of Geophysics, e-mail: linyf@cdsndmc.css.gov and Associate Researcher Xiangning Huang, e-mail: zh-q@ssb.csdi.ac.cn who discussed some of their research on non-seismological precursors of earthquakes with me. Beijing Polytechnic University I visited the Earthquake Prediction Laboratory at Beijing Polytechnic University where I met Professor Jun Zhi Li, tel: (86) (010) 6739-1682, and Engineer Chen Wei Sheng. Professor Li gave me reprints of some of his papers: "Measurement of Crustal Stress Related to Earthquakes"; "Infrasonic Wave Method for the Imminent Prediction of Earthquakes"; Methods to Monitor Imminent Precursors for Earthquakes"; and The Precursory Information of Impending Earthquakes Learnt from the Strong Earthquakes of the past few years in Japan (in Chinese) Visit to Tangshan Dr. Dong Jiarui took me to visit the city of Tangshan, about 90 miles from Beijing. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurred at 3:42 a.m. on July 28, 1976 which resulted in 240,000 deaths in the city. This was the worst earthquake disaster in China in this century. The Peoples Liberation Army responded with 100,000 troops to rescue survivors, treat the injured, build temporary shelters, and feed the earthquake victims. The rebuilding of the city was a classic case of urban renewal. The city is now a showplace since most of the buildings are only 10 to 15 years old. The streets are wide with attractive landscaping using many trees and flowers. The city has a comprehensive earthquake museum which documents the disaster and the rebuilding of the city. Chinese Research on Precursors and Prediction It is curious that research on alternative non-seismological approaches has apparently not been taken seriously in the United States. Professor Antony C. Fraser-Smith, E.E.Dept. at Stanford (650 723-3684) gave a seminar at Stanford on 26 October 1994, "Electromagnetic Methods of Earthquake prediction: Five Years after Loma Prieta". The seminar's announcement began, "In 1964, shortly before the devastating M 8.6 "Good Friday" earthquake in Alaska. a magnetometer located in Kodiak recorded a number of large disturbances of the earth's magnetic field. The observations were reported in a distinguished scientific journal, but they have since been almost universally ignored in discussions of the possibility of predicting earthquakes. . . . However, despite the quite numerous hints of precursory electric and magnetic field changes, neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the Earth Sciences Division of the National Science Foundation (the two relevant U.S. agencies) have ever committed significant funds to electromagnetic measurements in earthquake-prone regions of the U. S. and the funding currently being provided is essentially negligible compared with the funding for non-electromagnetic quantities that have already been shown to provide no precursory information." I was impressed with the Chinese approach of examining magnetic observatory records to see if there were any precursor indications associated with earthquakes. The United Nations is interested in exploring this approach and scheduled a workshop for representatives from magnetic observatories in about 15 different countries to come to Beijing for a week in February 1998. The Chinese researchers demonstrated three different methods of analysis of geomagnetic data so that each magnetician can go home and examine his or her data for precursors of local earthquakes. The United Nations "Global Programme" can be found on the Internet at: http://www.shore.net/~globalw/ungp/. It would appear that Chinese research on earthquake precursors and prediction should be looked at seriously in the United States since the combination of several alternative methods seems to have indicated the potential of empirical prediction for large earthquakes even if physical understanding is lacking. It may be prudent and worthwhile for researchers in the United States to investigate some of these alternative non-seismological approaches. References NCEER (1996). U.S.-China Research Exchange Program in Earthquake Studies. National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research NCEER Bulletin, Vol 10, Nr. 4. p 12, October 1996 Liu,Ziming (1997). "Citation Theories in the Framework of International Flow of Information: New Evidence with Translational Analysis. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Vol.48, Nr.1, p 80-87, January 1997 Hui, Li and Richard A Kerr (1997).The Jiashi 1997 Prediction: Warnings Precede Chinese Temblors. Science, Vol.276, p 526, 25 April 1997 Hui,Li (1996) China's Campaign to Predict Quakes. Science, Vol.273, p 1484-1486, 13 September 1996 Gang,Qian (1989). The Great China Earthquake. Beijing, China: Foreign Language Press ISBN 0-8351-2227-1 EERI (1980). The 1976 Tangshan, China Earthquake. Papers presented at the 2nd U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering held at Stanford University, August 22-24, 1979, Oakland, California: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (ERRI) Coile, Russell C. (1998). Emergency Preparedness for Earthquakes in China: The Great Tangshan Earthquake of July 28, 1976. Paper presented at the annual conference of The International Emergency Management Society, May 20, 1998, George Washington University, Washington DC. (Paper published in Proceedings of TIEMS 1998 Meeting) UN (1997). United Nations Global Programme for the Integration of Public Administration and the Science of Disasters. http://www.shore.net/~globalw/ungp/ Coile, Russell C. (1998) Chinese Research on Earthquake Forecasting. Poster session paper PS98-5 at the 1998 Natural Hazards Research and Applications Workshop, July 12-15, 1998, University of Colorado, Boulder.