March 20, 2008 -- An earthquake of M6.8 or greater on the Hayward Fault, in the heart of the San Francisco Bay area, is increasingly likely. The last major earthquake on the Hayward Fault was in 1868, 140 years ago; research by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and others indicate the past five such earthquakes have been 140 years apart on average.

According to newly updated information from members of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance announced today, a major earthquake on the Hayward fault would impact more than 5 million people and property and contents valued in excess of $1.5 trillion in the six counties surrounding the fault. If the 1868 earthquake were to reoccur today, Risk Management Solutions (RMS) estimates total economic losses to residential and commercial properties would likely exceed $165 billion. Other factors, such as fire, damage to infrastructure and related disruption would substantially increase the loss.

In marked contrast to Hurricane Katrina where uninsured losses were approximately 60 to 70 percent of total economic losses, more than 95 percent of projected Hayward Fault earthquake residential losses and 85 percent of commercial losses will be uninsured.

Original loss estimates will appear in an upcoming issue of Catastrophe Risk Management magazine, and reflect analysis based on a M6.8 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The updated loss estimates, are based on new modeling that suggests the 1868 Hayward earthquake was closer to M7.0.

A link to the full article will be available soon at http://www.cat-risk.com.