Corps of Engineers Releases New Orleans Risk Analysis

June 20, 2007 -- The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers today released the prototype risk assessment for the hurricane protection system in the New Orleans, La., vicinity. This comprehensive risk analysis was developed by the Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force (IPET) as part of their mission to study the effects of Hurricane Katrina on the protection system.

The innovative risk assessment provides information on the vulnerability of the protection system as it existed June 1, 2007. Future risk analysis work using these new modeling tools will look at the next level of protection (100-year storm elevations) for the protection system that will be provided in the coming years.

These prototype risk products profile pre-Katrina and current protection system conditions. This shows the dynamics of risk and the effects of system improvements on risk and vulnerability. The risk products already show risk reductions in some areas from repairs and improvements to the protection system. This risk information will be useful for officials and the public to make their own informed decisions. The risk products for the 100-year elevation levels of the protection system will be done later this summer by the New Orleans District using the IPET risk models.

The IPET risk analysis employs the most advanced physics, mathematics, engineering, hydrological, geological and meteorological knowledge available. It incorporates three main factors when determining risk: hazard (probability of hurricanes, their surge and waves), the protection system (performance of levees, floodwalls, and other structures) and consequences (loss of life or property).

The first set of publicly-released risk products on June 20 is prototype drafts that will receive additional detailed technical review and public comment. Samples of the risk products, interactive map links, and other information can be accessed at http://NOLArisk.usace.army.mil or at https://IPET.wes.army.mil.